Saban accused of trying to bribe superdelegates

Haim Saban, a major financial supporter of Hillary Clinton, allegedly attempted to buy two superdelegates with a million-dollar gift to Young Democrats of America. Saban denied it, but the Huffington Post has some damaging information from four independent, and, of course, anonymous, sources:

Members of the Young Democrats agonized about the potential fallout of Saban's call; his financial offer represented one-third of the group's 2008 budget. Democratic officials and fundraisers were consulted about how to respond, and at times the discussions were "emotional," one participant said. "It is scary for them, Haim is very powerful, he has great influence over donors who give to them."

Another source said that Hardt and others were acutely aware of Saban's status within Democratic circles and were concerned that their organization would suffer long-term harm if they declined his offer or if news of the proposal became public.

"I said I thought that the appropriate response was to call Haim back and say thank you but we are not interested," said the source. "I also said that it was surely the case that this story would get out because it is too interesting not to and they should think about how to deal with it. It was a day or two [before they responded]. They felt afraid. They were like, 'Holy sh--, this is Haim Saban.'"

Clinton's Israeli-American supporters living in Los Angeles sure have been causing a stir.

Clinton carries Keystone Jews

Hillary Clinton last night not only won the Pennsylvania primary, but carried the Jewish vote, 62 percent to Barack Obama's 38 percent.

Her margin was similar among whites overall, winning 63 percent to 37 percent. Clinton's performance among white Catholics was particularly strong, winning 70 percent to 30 percent.

"I think much of the Jewish vote voted for their comfort level, and they were more comfortable with Senator Clinton," said Marcel Groen, a Clinton supporter and the head of the Montgomery County Democratic Committee, in an interview with JTA a day after the primary. "I just think generally from a Jewish perspective, Hillary Clinton was a known commodity."

This news really shouldn't be a surprise. When you talk about "comfort level," Obama has had a lot of trouble convincing the Jewish community, and a few others, that he's no sheepskin wolf.

Clinton to Iran: We will 'totally obliterate' you

A pair of Silversteins, Richard and Ken, drew my attention this morning to Hillary Clinton's promise to wipe out Iran if it were to strike Israel with nukes in the near future. Here's the story from Ha'aretz:

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, facing a crucial primary in Pennsylvania Tuesday, said that if she were in the White House and Tehran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, the United States would be able to 'totally obliterate' Iran.

Interviewed on ABC's Good Morning America program, Clinton was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton replied. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he believes Iran is "hell-bent" on acquiring nuclear weapons, but he warned in strong terms of the consequences of going to war over that.

"Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need and, in fact, I
believe it would be disastrous on a number of levels," he said in a speech he was delivering Monday evening at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York.

Is Hillary God's choice for prez?

At the Democratic presidential forum last night, Sen. Hillary Clinton was asked a question quite comical when considering the event's host (Messiah College in Pennsylvania).

There was a moment of levity on Sunday night when Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was asked at a nationally televised faith forum whether she believed "God wants you to be president?"

"Well, I could be glib and say we'll find out," Clinton said to laughter from the audience.

"But I -- I don't presume anything about God. I believe, you know, Abraham Lincoln was right in admonishing us not to act as though we knew God was on our side," she said.

I'm glad she opted for grace and didn't deem herself the next divinely appointed President of the United States of America. Don't get me wrong: There is no endorsement I'd rather have. It's just kind of frowned upon when you tell the populace that God spoke to you and said He had picked you to lead this nation.

'Hating Hillary'

A Christianity Today editorial now online takes up a phenomenon that could dog Hillary Clinton if she survives as the Democratic nominee -- an increasingly unlikely event unless things turn around tonight. The issue is one I've mentioned here before: Despite the findings of a recent Zogby poll, evangelicals love to hate Hillary.

Her public persona, a brand of East Coast liberalism with roots in '60s radical politics, strikes many Americans as uppity and unapproachable. Open talk about her personal faith in recent years strikes some as politically convenient. And Clinton's consistently pro-choice stance on abortion clashes with most evangelicals' deeply held belief that life begins in the womb and should be protected at great cost.

But then come more baseless blows to the former first lady. No small amount of jokes and hate-marketing attests to how far the "Hate Hillary" demographic stretches: T-shirts, bumper stickers, voodoo dolls, and "No Way in Hellary" BBQ aprons are now among the items you can purchase to advertise your anti-Hillary stance. On the nonprofit side, scads of websites dish on Hillary's supposed crookery, while bloggers invent new derogatory nicknames, such as Hitlery and Hilldabeast. We seem to simply enjoy hating Hillary. ...

Perhaps Hillary-bashing says more about the political climate Americans have created than it does about Clinton herself. The current President? "Village Idiot." The one before him? "Slick Willy." And on it goes. Instead of researching a candidate's voting record or listening to position statements on pressing issues, it's easier to mark someone ENEMY and begin the verbal whacking. There's admittedly something comforting about this: It helps make sense of the world and creates a feeling of mutuality among those with whom we share dislike. The factions created around enemies may even bear a far-off resemblance to true community.
Better than bashing

Evangelicals, knowing that turning candidates into verbal punching bags will never create real community, are called to talk about political figures in ways starkly different from the pundits and hate-marketers.

While the loudest political voices this election season will keep only a loose rein on their tongues, evangelicals do well to ponder the Bible's insights into the mysterious yet profound connection between a person's heart and mouth: "The things that come out of the mouth," says Jesus, "come from the heart." Which is why Paul says, "Now you must rid yourselves of all such things as these: anger, rage, malice, slander, and filthy language from your lips" (Col. 3:8). Biblical psychology assumes not only that the words of our mouths reveal the state of our hearts, but that words have power to shape the heart—for better or worse.

LA Times poll: McCain would beat Democrats

We already know Hillary Clinton's campaign has one foot in the grave. But is the Democrat's overall effort to take back the White House also moribund? Another shocker in a wild presidential election:

WASHINGTON -- After a sometimes bitter primary campaign, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain now presents a stiff challenge to either of his potential Democratic opponents in the general election, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The findings underscore the difficulties ahead for Democrats as they hope to retake the White House during a time of war, with voters giving McCain far higher marks when it comes to experience, fighting terrorism and dealing with the situation in Iraq.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have made ending the war a centerpiece of their campaigns. But in hypothetical matchups against either Democratic senator, about half of voters polled said McCain, a Vietnam veteran, was best able to deal with the war. Just over a third of voters polled favored the Democratic candidates on that issue.

Overall, McCain would beat Clinton 46% to 40% and Obama 44% to 42%. His lead over Obama is within the poll's three-point margin of error.

Last night, Karl Rove offered two contradictory remarks/jokes that could explain how Democratic enthusiasm is now behind the eight ball. Rove said he was certain he could get either Clinton or Obama elected, but wouldn't say how. "I only work for Democrats -- and Joe Lieberman." Lieberman is, of course, a friend and supporter of McCain; Rove is too, despite an icy introduction. But at another moment in his lecture, Rove joked that he secretly was advising both Clinton and Obama, explaining why they had turned so hard against each other.

Such a scenario would certainly bare what President Bush's former chief strategist said has become known as "the mark of Rove." "If you can't explain," he said, "Rove is responsible."

Too much credence probably shouldn't be put into this hypothesis.

Zogby must be wrong: evangelicals like Hillary?

This can't be. It just doesn't jibe with everything we've been told: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic favorite among white evangelicals? They split the Christian vote on Super Tuesday, but this Zogby poll from the primaries shows Clinton is way ahead with evangelicals and points to other religious voting patterns of note.

What we do know is that Hillary is doing better among evangelicals than she is among Protestants in general. And that’s a surprise, especially since most pundits have assumed that Obama, not Clinton, is the evangelical favorite on the Democratic side.

The reality, it seems to me, is that who is supporting Hillary really doesn't matter. Barack Obama has the momentum, steamrollering last night. And Clinton seemed to be cooked.

Though, yesterday I saw this headline accompanying Clinton's portrait on the homepage of Slate: "Is She Doomed?" The article offered a surprisingly upbeat analysis for Clinton's camp:

The best news for Hillary Clinton's campaign may be that it's headed over a cliff. In a campaign season where conventional wisdom has been so wrong so often, she can take heart that the current view among the political class is that Obama is marching unstoppably toward the nomination.

Obama has won the last five contests by wide margins and looks on course to win all three primaries on Tuesday. The Clinton campaign predicted this would be a good period for Obama and that they could take this in stride, but their nonchalance crumbled when Clinton replaced her campaign manager this week. (We're winning; time to fire the quarterback!) Obama is also ahead of Clinton for the first time in a national poll and outperforms Clinton in head-to-head matchups with likely opponent John McCain. Obama has more money, can raise it easily, and still draws those blockbuster crowds. (He should travel with his own overflow room since they are so often required at the venues he uses.)

But all is not lost for those who support Hillary Clinton.

Here's why, John Dickerson argues: Clinton has secured the key voting blocs, being the front-runner in such a rollercoaster campaign is a recipe for losing, and, if the race comes down to the 796 superdelegates, well, maybe they'll favor Clinton's insider credentials. Then again:

In a race where so much that seemed certain has not been, any struggling candidate can find a reason to persevere, especially perhaps a candidate who was once seen as inevitable. Of course the race's switchbacks have now become such a predictable part of conventional wisdom that it may be time now for the undulations to stop and for momentum to start playing a role again. In that case, Clinton is doomed.

Clinton and Obama split California Jews, too

Jews, who made up 5 percent of California's Democratic vote, split between Hillary Clinton, who got 47 percent, and Barack Obama, who got 49 percent. Clinton once had a significant lead over Obama, but the Illinois senator made a strong run in the past few weeks.

Clinton and Obama split religious vote

It seems the Clinton campaign's concerns were either premature or a ploy to lower expectations because she won California handily, and for both parties a long fight appears to be in order. I asked last night how religious voters would chose between the two Democratic candidates considering Barack Obama has been better at infusing religious language in his speeches and, partially as a defense, has emphasized his Christian beliefs.

Well, on Super Tuesday they split the votes. Here is the analysis from preeminent religion and politics scholar John C. Green, via CT Liveblog:

Sen. Obama has clearly done very well among black Protestants, and that’s changed the equation. If you go back to the polls last year that showed Sen. Clinton way ahead, one of the reason was she was winning the black vote by a large margin and that doesn’t seem to be happening. White Catholics are really important to the extent that Clinton can hang on to them. One of the tasks for the Obama campaign is to find a way to reach into Catholic community. There’s quite a struggle over white Protestants. It appears that Clinton has an edge there as well, so a challenge for Sen. Obama. I see a pretty fierce struggle going forward and religious groups will be part of the mix.

Clinton's hold on California slipping *

Polls in more than half of the 24 states holding primaries or caucuses today are still open, but Barack Obama has already surprised the Clinton campaign with a dominant win in Georgia (that's based on returns from about 10 percent of the precincts.)

It's almost inconceivable that Hillary Clinton could struggle in her home state of New York, but her campaign suggested today that they're no longer confident about a big win in California.

"We're confident we're going to win a diverse mix of states today, but the results are going to be close and inconclusive due to the proportional allocation of delegates under the Democratic Party rules," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications advisor. "We do expect to maintain the overall lead in delegates tomorrow when we wake up that we do today.''

Clinton's strategists said they could see the fight going through March and possibly onto the convention floor in Denver in August -- great sport for political junkies but a test of nerves for the candidates. And even if Obama gets more delegates today, Clinton's advisors said her lead among "super delegates'' -- party leaders and elected officials who are free to vote as they choose -- would still give her the overall lead. But that would just add to the perception that she's the mainstream choice, and fuel Obama's contention that he's the candidate of change.

So how did Clinton lose her dominant position in California, a state she once led by 16 poll points?

Wolfson: "Sen Obama has put considerable resources into the state. He's had large rallies, he's had great surrogates coming out to urge his supporters to vote.... Much to their credit the state is close. I don't think we're going to know who has won California until very late into the night. That's just the way politics is. The election wasn't 30 days ago. It's today. And as of today it's very close.''

How much of this has to do with the fact that Obama has been winning the war of religious rhetoric is unclear. Christian Democrats split their votes in Georgia between the two. By tomorrow we should have a better understanding.

* Updated: The surprises just don't stop. Shortly after I posted this, Clinton was forecasted the winner of Massachusetts, despite Obama have received the endorsement of most of the Kennedy family.

Hillary and evangelicals: 'The Antichrist is here'

As you know, Hillary Clinton has been talking a lot about her lifelong commitment to the Methodist church, a part of the Godtalk game that I spoke with Georgetown associate professor Jacques Berlinerblau about today. (He's got a knew book out called "Thumpin' It.")

"In Hillary's case, it's not so much that she wants to project herself as a religious virtuoso, it is that she wants to avoids the stigma of a label that was unfairly applied to her in the early '90s of being a radical, godless feminist," Berlinerblau told me. "And she gives off the impression of being a solid religious citizen, of being steeped in her church since childhood. It's defensive. She is not letting people accuse her of being some godless, feminist, blue state politician.

"What's the prize? The prize is evangelical voters."

Still, the perspective in this cartoon is one many evangelicals have of Clinton. It's hard to know if she'll be able to overcome it.

(Hat tip: CT Liveblog)

The religious politics for '08

I couldn't make it to the Religion Newswriters Association's annual conference this week in San Antonio, but fortunately Jeffrey Weiss of the Dallas Morning News has been blogging the details. I found interesting the political insights he relayed from one of my favorite religion and politics sources: John C. Green of the Pew Forum.

Recent polls, he says, show that just about every segment of religious belief in the US is breaking toward the Democrats at this point. These are very early and pretty abstract polls -- asking if people would be more inclined to for Dem or GOP without any candidate involved. With the exception of evangelicals who say they regularly attend church, other segments of the US population are leaning Dem, including groups that helped elect President Bush twice.

Green thinks those Democratic attempts to be religious are working. Just as they bought the religious Republican line for the last 30 years, the public is now gobbling up the juicy pew details of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, et al.

But despite Clinton's best efforts to put on a faithful face, her most unfavorable ratings are among people who don't think she's religions.

(Somebody better let Elisha Shapiro know that now is the wrong time to run for president.)

Clinton soon to be a Jew?

That would be Chelsea Clinton, daughter of former President Bill Clinton and hopeful-future President Hillary Clinton. Her boyfriend, Marc Mezvinsky (son of former Congressman Edward Mezvinsky), is Jewish, and she recently visited his parents' home for Shabbat dinner.

The retreat was mentioned in a New York Times profile of Chelsea that asked whether she is ready for first-daughter round two:

Ms. Clinton and Mr. Mezvinsky seem serious about a future together, according to friends, some of whom wonder about a White House wedding in the event of a Clinton electoral victory. Their bond is apparent; friends say at parties and other events, the couple are cuddly and affectionate. Ms. Clinton recently attended Sabbath dinner at the home of Ms. Amini’s parents with the hope of learning more about Judaism, Mr. Mezvinsky’s faith. (Ms. Clinton is a Christmas-cookie-baking, churchgoing Methodist.)

Who wants to place odds that the Baptist president's daughter converts to Judaism?

Hillary Clinton on faith

This is a gripe I will return to throughout the 2008 presidential election, in which hopefuls already are pandering to Americans' desire to connect religiously with the commander-in-chief (probably because of this). I personally think it is dangerous to put too much stock in anything pols say. That goes double when they've talking about religion, something they know you want to hear but have no means for measuring their sincerity.

That being said, proceed at your own peril with this 2,093-word story in the New York Times about how Sen. Hillary Clinton's Christian faith taught her to forgive and much, much more.

“We all have things that oftentimes we’re upset about, or ashamed of, or feel guilty over, and so many people carry these enormous burdens around,” Mrs. Clinton said in a recent interview. “One of the great gifts of faith is to let it go.”

The themes of wrongs, forgiveness and reconciliation have played out repeatedly in Mrs. Clinton’s life, as she has endured the ordeal of her husband’s infidelity, engaged in countless political battles and shared a deep, mutual distrust with adversaries.

Her Methodist faith, Mrs. Clinton says, has guided her as she sought to repair her marriage, forgiven some critics who once vilified her and struggled in the bare-knuckles world of politics to fulfill the biblical commandment to love thy neighbor.

Mrs. Clinton, the New York senator who is seeking the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, has been alluding to her spiritual life with increasing regularity in recent years, language that has dovetailed with efforts by her party to reach out to churchgoers who have been voting overwhelmingly Republican.

Mrs. Clinton’s references to faith, though, have come under attack, both from conservatives who doubt her sincerity (one writer recently lumped her with the type of Christians who “believe in everything but God”) and liberals who object to any injection of religion into politics. And her motivations have been cast as political calculation by detractors, who suggest she is only trying to moderate her liberal image.

“Many people have developed opinions about her,” said John C. Green, senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. “Senator Clinton has a long history of involvement in religious matters and appears to be a person of deep and sincere faith, but a lot of people don’t perceive her that way.”

Obviously her husband and Monica Lewinsky are not far from the story, from Clinton's tales of trials overcome. Thematically, the article ends right where it began.

“The whole idea of the new covenant was really a new relationship with God, a sense that we could be forgiven, that we could seek both personally and through our relationships with others that gift of forgiveness,” she said. “It’s instrumental in life.”

(A Google image search for "hillary clinton praying" doesn't turn up photos of the senator in prayer but instead, it appears, web pages for people praying she doesn't end up in the White House.)